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What will Andy's ranking be at the end of 2017?
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MurraysMate
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Thanks Again ATL - that makes it a bit clearer!
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moonglow
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Quote from: amongsttheleaves on April 05, 2018, 09:10 am
Entry cut off for Wimbledon is 21st May. Andy will be ranked around 45 then so will be able to enter Wimbledon without PR or WC.

This means he doesn’t need PR for the grass season, but might need it for US hard courts. Nonetheless, he is eligible for WCs.

Andy’s PR will be 2 based on his average ranking in the first three months of the layoff.

Yes thanks ATL, it's very clear now.
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Aileen
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^ And thanks from me too.
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marathonarthur
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A thought regarding Andy's seeding at Wimbledon. Many think that he will not be but my interpretation is somewhat different.

Am I correct that before he goes to Holland for his first tournament for quite a time he will have just 360 points left but for Wimbledon seeding calculations purposes he has 1500 (75% of 2000) to add from being 2016 champion on grass in SW19 and whatever he gains from Holland doubled but probably not anything from Queens? The latter depends when they do the calculation but if it was included that too would be doubled?  

Even without the latter that might place him close to the top twenty so why are sports commentators saying he will not be seeded in top 32 with such certainty?

Have I got this wrong?  Someone (ATL?) please advise.
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amongsttheleaves
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Quote from: marathonarthur on May 03, 2018, 10:52 pm
Have I got this wrong? 

Yes. 

Andy will have a base of 360 points going into Rosmalen - assuming he doesn’t play Loughborough or Surbiton - that will leave him ranked between 150-165 depending on what happens in the remaining clay court tournaments. The Wimbledon seeding formula for the men’s seeds only applies if a player is already ranked in the top 32.

Gentlemen's Seeding Formula

The seeds are the top 32 players on the ATP Ranking list, BUT then rearranged on a surface-based system. Since 2002 a seeding committee has not been required for the Gentlemen’s Singles following an agreement made with the ATP. The seeding order is determined using an objective and transparent system to reflect more accurately an individual player’s grass court achievements. It is based on giving additional credit for grass court performance in the two year period immediately before the date used for seeding for The Championships. The formula is:
- Take the ATP Ranking points at 26 June 2017
- Add 100% of the points earned for all grass court tournaments in the immediate past 12 months period prior to 26 June 2017.
- Add 75% of the points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months prior to that

Even if a miracle happens and Andy wins Rosemalen and Queens I don’t think he’ll quite reach the top 32, but might return to around top 40 - where he is now - as that would leave him with 1110 points.

More realistically if Andy can end the grass season inside the top 100 it would have been a good set of results returning after such a long time off.
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marathonarthur
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Quote from: amongsttheleaves on May 04, 2018, 08:55 am


The Wimbledon seeding formula for the men’s seeds only applies if a player is already ranked in the top 32.



ATL,  Thank you. I knew that you would have this at your fingertips

Above is the bit that I missed.

Someone starting at ranked 33 who is a grass specialist I doubt would be too pleased with that part of the formula conditions? For them the formula objective would have failed.

For the interest of the public a hard, losing, first round match for Andy at Wimbledon would be sad. I am sure that they (and all of us) would not like that outcome.

PS.  Obviously the date used to determine the top 32 is not 27th June 2017 but one in June 2018.

 
[ Last edit by marathonarthur May 05, 2018, 09:09 am ] IP Logged
blueberryhill
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Theoretically I suppose Andy could draw Fed very early. Oh joy  Rolling Eyes
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amongsttheleaves
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Quote from: marathonarthur on May 05, 2018, 08:12 am
Someone starting at ranked 33 who is a grass specialist I doubt would be too pleased with that part of the formula conditions? For them the formula objective would have failed.

We’ve seen it happen before, players who are decent on grass not being seeded. Kholi in 2015 or 2016 facing Djokovic in R1. Bad luck. But the formula isn’t there to promote unseeded players.

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For the interest of the public a hard, losing, first round match for Andy at Wimbledon would be sad. I am sure that they (and all of us) would not like that outcome.

It is what it is. Andy might lose in R1 regardless of who he plays; it could be Federer, could be Muller, it could be someone ranked 98 in the world, could be a qualifier, who knows? The Wimbledon draw is done on a transparent way - unlike the USO and now it also seems the AO - so unless the algorithm is being rigged, which is possible, Andy isn’t going to get any special treatment with the draw.
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marathonarthur
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ATL,

I thought the formula was to ensure that the seedings reflected players ability on grass.  I do feel that to simply reshuffle the top 32 does not do that job hence my reference to seed 33 who may be a grass specialist. However as you say, it is what it is, an attempt to make a grass tournament seedings reflect better abilities of those in the tournament.

I do agree with your last point generally. I still prefer the traditional draw with players placed in the draw to suit a full list of rankings. That is the only fair way. Imagine in F1 only the top ten are in grid order and the rest of the places done by a publicity draw event. That seems to be the AO and other slam process to make the draw include the unexpected and sensational match-ups. I rely on the players to create excitement and the unexpected on the court. 

Do you have any thoughts about the difference with the ladies draw that Serena Williams can be seeded at a high level? Almost same situation as Andy both being number one ranked until a period out of the game?

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blueberryhill
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^ Pregnancy is not an illness, or an injury, that's the difference.
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moonglow
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Quote from: blueberryhill on May 05, 2018, 09:11 am
Theoretically I suppose Andy could draw Fed very early. Oh joy  Rolling Eyes

Yes - he might draw Fed early  shocking

Thanks ATL for your seeding post - it was interesting.
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moonglow
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Quote from: blueberryhill on May 05, 2018, 11:30 am
^ Pregnancy is not an illness, or an injury, that's the difference.

Yes it isn't an illness but Serena was quite ill afterwards?
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marathonarthur
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Quote from: blueberryhill on May 05, 2018, 11:30 am
^ Pregnancy is not an illness, or an injury, that's the difference.

Bizarre concept that BBH! Two are the consequence of one's own actions although the injury is not sought after but the pregnancy is. You are entering a minefield here.

I am sorry but I do not understand how you get there.  In this world discriminating and making differentials between illness, injury and pregnancy to limit your opportunity is illegal.

It would be fun to see a Fed/Murray round one match for some who have tickets on that day. Quite unexpected but perhaps with Andy just returning it would not be much of a match?
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circe
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The WTA need to get a grip with the 21st century and offer PR for pregnancy as well as illness. If anyone can achieve this advancement, it is the queen of achievements Serena. 

On the more cheerful news I have bagged day one tickets for FO (no Andy) and Rosmalen  (no guarantee of Andy but decent  chance plus always wanted to try a non English grass tourney). So excited.
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Tamaragl
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It seems to me that the main point Serena is making is that the way the ranking system is set up, it is likely to discourage women players from having children during the most fertile period of their lives. If you worry that you're going to have to start at the bottom again when you've taken a year or however much off to have a baby, you may decide not to. But of course if you put it off, the later in life you decide to get pregnant, the harder that is likely to be. This is not a problem that the men have to deal with. 
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