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Jamie ranking update
Philip
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Here are my musings on when Jamie can get back into the top 50 to play on the ATP tour.

Presently Jamie is on 758 points and in 94th position.

Jamie is sure to gain 55 points to be at 813 points, with another 35 points up for grab tomorrow.

Until 10th May, Jamie is defending 18+45+45 = 108 points which will bring his total down to 705 points (813 - 108) on 10th May before counting any win from now till then.

The 50th position is 1460 points which is 755 points away.

Assuming a simplistic 100 points per tournament win, Jamie will need to win another 8 tournaments from now to Mid May.  I don't think this is doable.  I think it will be towards August / September earliest before Jamie will get back to the top 50 even if he does extremely well and win loads of tournaments.

It appears to me that players on the challenger tour is at a great disadvantage points wise.  Even if they get to finals, the points they get (~55 points) is not really sufficient to accumulate towards the 1500 points total they need to get to the top 50.  

1500 points = ~15 challenger tournament wins = ~25 challenger finals. Absolutely ridiculous considering that he can only count 18 tournaments in a year !

Their main chance is to do well in GS to get lots of ranking points (e.g. QF = 360 points = 4 tournament wins).  I think he needs to be in the top 30 to gain entry into the Master Series so might as well kiss goodbye to that.

Any other thought on how Jamie can gain points faster ?
[ Last edit by Philip February 12, 2010, 08:33 pm ] IP Logged
tennis_girl
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Quote from: Philip on February 12, 2010, 08:21 pm
Any other thought on how Jamie can gain points faster ?


Dispose of the players above him.  Whistle
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Shooting Star
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Beat them, or kill them! lol
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Philip
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What a good idea although a bit more radical than what I originally thought of lol
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Allan
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Jamie needs the the points that go with winning at ATP 250 events.
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Shooting Star
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Well, what are the rules regarding death? Do the people behind move up to fill the gap?
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Allan
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Yes, the gaps get filled. And that has unfortunately had to happen before.
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Shooting Star
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Quote from: Allan on February 12, 2010, 11:18 pm
Yes, the gaps get filled. And that has unfortunately had to happen before.
Montecourt being the most recent?
And in that case, then Jamie doesn't need the ranking points, he'd be better off just topping them all! lol
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Allan
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Quote from: Shooting Star on February 12, 2010, 11:53 pm
Montecourt being the most recent?
Yes.
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Philip
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Quote from: Allan on February 12, 2010, 10:48 pm
Jamie needs the the points that go with winning at ATP 250 events.

Oh I get it.  For an ATP 250 event, you need to be around the top 50 to qualify automatically. However, if there are few of the top 250 applying (e.g. due to withdrawal or other competing tournaments happening at the same time), someone lower ranked will go onto the waiting list.  The closer you are to top 50, the higher you are in the waiting list to get into the tournament.

I also understand that there are a few places (3 ?) available from qualifying by winning three qualifying matches.

I guess this means that as Jamie gets closer to the top 50,  if he is willing to play and win qualifying matches,  he will be able to gain entry into ATP 250 events to earn double points as compared to participating in Challenger tournaments.

Can someone who is knowledgeable give me a rough probability estimate of Jamie (presently ranked 94th) being able to enter qualifying rounds for ATP 250 tournament please ?  Thanks.

As a matter of fact, in a normal ATP 250 tournament where there are 5 rounds, there is enough space for 32 doubles pairing.  How many of those are allocated to wild cards, and how many to qualifying (3?) normally ?

It appears to me the best way to get into an ATP 250 in Jamie current position is to apply to all ATP 250 events and hope that not enough people apply so he can get into the qualifying rounds.  He will be notified usually [3?] days in advance so he will then have to book flights and accommodation and get there at the last minute and hope the jet lag doesn't stop him from winning his matches.
[ Last edit by Philip February 13, 2010, 08:50 pm ] IP Logged
Allan
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Eyebrow raise. The doubles draws at 250 events are 16 pairing draws with no qualifying places.
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Philip
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Quote from: Allan on February 12, 2010, 10:48 pm
Jamie needs the the points that go with winning at ATP 250 events.
Quote from: Allan on February 13, 2010, 08:50 pm
Eyebrow raise. The doubles draws at 250 events are 16 pairing draws with no qualifying places.

Thanks Allan.  Based on your two sets of comments above,  there are 16 pairings which equate to 32 players.  

Unless there are multiple ATP (or MS, GS) tournaments happening at the same, or people falling ill or injured to withdraw, or just plain can't bother to participate (highly unlikely),  then Jamie's current chance of getting into an ATP 250 event is highly unlikely.

In this case your comment,  "Jamie needs the points that go with winning at ATP 250 events." can't unfortunately be realised because he can't even get in.  I am sure this dilemma will be resolved in the next 3 months or so as Jamie moves up to around 60/70th position.  
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Philip
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With yesterday's win (90 points), assuming that everyone else's points stay the same, I think Jonathan can gain up to 7 places (87 up to 80 max), and Jamie will gain up to 5 places (94 to 89 max) to reduce their combined ranking by up to more than 10 places.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Doubles.aspx?d=08.02.2010&c=&r=1
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Allan
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In tomorrow's ranking update Jamie is at 54 (and 6th in GB!).
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